Bill Clark/CQ Roll Call via AP Images
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Engel is down ten points to progressive opponent Jamaal Bowman in the latest poll.
House Foreign Affairs Committee chair Eliot Engel’s three-decade tenure in Congress may be coming to an end.
According to new polling from Data for Progress, middle school principal and progressive congressional candidate Jamaal Bowman has cracked open a 10-point lead in his primary bid to unseat Eliot Engel, the 16-term incumbent in New York’s 16th district. In a survey conducted between June 11 and June 15, Bowman showed a commanding advantage, holding a 41-31 margin over Engel, with 27 percent undecided.
That surprisingly decisive advantage adds even more momentum to Bowman’s campaign, which in recent weeks has been designated as “surging” by various news outlets, including this one. It’s also a sign of remarkable strength at this stage of an election cycle. Two years ago, no public poll showed Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez within 30 points of establishment Congressman Joe Crowley, until Election Night. But Bowman is well ahead in the only poll released thus far in the race’s final stretch.
As one might expect, Bowman, who is running to Engel’s left, enjoys a considerable 43-17 lead with voters under 45, who tend to support progressives overwhelmingly. But Bowman is also winning voters over 45 by 6 percent, non-college-educated voters by 8 percent, college-educated voters by 9 percent, and female voters by 17 percent. His advantage is even more dominant when broken out by racial group: he’s winning Black voters by a startling 56-10 margin. Engel’s best demographic, meanwhile, is whites, who he’s winning 52-30 (it’s the only demographic he’s winning aside from men, who favor him by a 2 percent margin).
The profound support of Bowman from the Black community—a plurality of residents within the district—is particularly noteworthy, given that the Congressional Black Caucus formally endorsed Engel just a few weeks back. In fact, Jim Clyburn, one of the CBC’s foremost members, personally endorsed Engel over Bowman just days ago, well after Engel was caught on a hot mic pleading to speak at a Black Lives Matter rally, while saying, “If I didn’t have a primary, I wouldn’t care.”
That was just one of many perceived missteps from the embattled congressman, a longtime favorite of the defense industry. Engel was discovered to not have stepped foot in the Bronx throughout the entirety of the coronavirus pandemic, which hit his district harder than almost anywhere else in the country, and then to have lied about his absence. NY-16 is a majority Black and Latino district, and those racial groups have been uniquely ravaged by the coronavirus crisis.
In recent days, the battle for NY-16 has turned into a proxy war between the Democratic establishment, which has pulled out all the stops to impede Bowman’s rise, and a determined progressive insurgency. Among Engel’s endorsers in the past few weeks are the most powerful players in the Democratic party: House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, Intelligence Committee chair Adam Schiff, third-ranking House Democrat Clyburn, caucus chair Hakeem Jeffries, New York senator Kirsten Gillibrand (the state’s senior senator, Chuck Schumer, was listed on Engel’s website as an endorser, but recently claimed to be sitting the race out). Hillary Clinton came off the sidelines to make Engel her first House race endorsement this cycle, joining the CBC and End Citizens United, a PAC largely seen as an outgrowth of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, House Democrats’ campaign arm (the DCCC has not run ads in the race).
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If that weren’t enough, a Republican super PAC called Americans for Tomorrow’s Future dropped $100,000 into a Democratic counterpart, Democratic Majority for Israel, which is spending big to back Engel. DFMI has spent at least $600,000 on ads attacking Bowman. All told, Engel is currently the beneficiary of over a million dollars in outside big-money spending.
For his part, Bowman is now sporting a united front of progressive support, from AOC and Bernie Sanders to Elizabeth Warren and Katie Porter. He’s also got the backing of labor, progressive, and environmental groups, including the New York State Nurses Association (NYSNA), Justice Democrats, the Working Families Party, 350.org, the Sunrise Movement, MoveOn, and the Democratic Socialists of America. Several local New York City politicians have gotten behind him, including Public Advocate Jumaane Williams, New York State Senator Robert Jackson, NYC Comptroller Scott M. Stringer, and state senator Alessandra Biaggi, who withdrew her Engel endorsement to back Bowman instead. The New York Times editorial board is backing Bowman, as well.
Though Engel enjoys a considerable fundraising advantage, Bowman raised more than $1 million by early June, and pulled in $265,000 in just the three days after Ocasio-Cortez’s endorsement. And if things look bad for Engel and his establishment allies now, it could get even worse come Election Day. According to that same poll, undecideds are leaning towards Bowman at a 40-18 advantage, and prefer him across every demographic group.
Early voting has already begun in New York. Bowman’s race is just one of a number of hotly contested House races, where progressive underdogs are gaining ground on well-funded centrist incumbents. In NY-17, Mondaire Jones, another Black progressive, was seen in recent polling to be breaking away from the pack in an open seat vacated by the retiring Nita Lowey.
Democratic committee chairs don’t get beaten often, let alone by double-digits. Even though the old guard has frequently over the past decade been criticized as out of touch with the party base, that hasn’t often translated into open revolt, as name recognition and the right donors have been enough to hold would-be challengers at bay. If this poll is accurate, that time is rapidly ending. And the evolution of New York into a full-blown hotbed of progressive uprising could kick off a chain reaction in the party. If deeply entrenched incumbents like Engel can be knocked off, it’s possible that seats once perceived as fortresses for centrist incumbents might be vulnerable as well. One such office—Chuck Schumer’s senate seat—comes up for re-election in 2022.
