Later on today, the House of Representatives is expected to pass a bill funding the Department of Homeland Security and also reversing President Obama's executive actions temporarily exempting certain undocumented immigrants from deportation. We've been on this merry-go-round before, and here's what's so remarkable about this: Republicans still believe, even after all this time, that there is some kind of clever legislative move they can find that will accomplish all their goals on this issue. But there just isn't. Are they ever going to accept it and move on?
In their perfect world, Republicans would achieve three things. First, they'd win on the policy, reversing Obama's orders. Second, they'd win on the politics, doing so in a way that didn't make them look reckless and recalcitrant, and also wouldn't alienate Hispanic voters. And third, they'd keep a lid on their ongoing internal conflict between tea party maximalists and the more pragmatic leadership.
But this isn't their perfect world. Not only that, they can't even achieve two out of those three goals. They're going to have to settle for one out of three. Here's how it breaks down:
1. Win on the policy: This is just not going to happen, period. Obama is not going to give in and reverse his orders. If they shut down the DHS, he'll wait them out. As long as he's president, the policy stays. Period.
2. Win on the politics: In this case, "winning" actually means "not losing," which means not forcing a shutdown (partial or otherwise) and not further alienating Hispanic voters. In order to do that, they have to give in to Obama and fund the DHS, and that means they lose on the policy and their internal problems persist, because the conservatives will be angry.
3. Keep a lid on their internal conflict: The only way to do that is by forcing a shutdown so that the tea parties feel like they're fighting Obama. But as everyone knows, if they do that they'll lose on the politics, and eventually they'll submit, which means they'll lose on the policy as well, and the conservatives will be mad all over again.
So there's only one option, which is to just fund the DHS and minimize the political damage, even if it means giving up on the policy question and suffering through the tea party rage that will result. One out of three is the best they can do. It's obviously not a very appetizing alternative, but it's all they've got. They just don't seem ready to admit it.
