Opponents of California's constitutional ban on same-sex marriage, Proposition 8, have started collecting the 807,615 signatures needed to put the issue on the ballot. It'll be a slog-they have to have them all by May 14. Earlier this year, Equality California, the largest organization in the state fighting for same-sex marriage rights, declined to participate in the effort to gather signatures, citing the uncertainty of a win at the ballot box and the pending lawsuit against Prop. 8, which the Ninth Circuit is set to decide on soon. This leaves Love, Honor, Cherish (LHC)-another gay-rights organization-leading the way.
It's difficult to guess whether LHC will succeed in its effort to put Prop. 8 to a vote. But it is woefully underprepared to launch an advocacy campaign that can outgun the opposition. LHC is pretty short on cash; whereas Equality California received $3.2 million in contributions in 2010, LHC says it has only $500,000. The results of a recent poll-in which 48 percent of Californians said they supported gay marriage, 43 percent opposed it, and 9 percent were unsure-might give gay-rights supporters hope. But public opinion was also on the side of gay-marriage advocates in 2008, when well-funded and organized gay-marriage opponents blindsided the poorly prepared opposition to pass Prop. 8. If LHC does succeed in getting a Prop. 8 repeal on the ballot, they'll need to ramp up their fundraising efforts to avoid a repeat disappointment.
There is little chance the Supreme Court will rule on Prop. 8 before the election-the earliest it could take the case is late next year-but having the measure on the ballot will certainly put pressure on President Obama to weigh in and catapult social issues back into the spotlight. As a candidate, Obama disappointed many gay-rights supporters when he said that he believes marriage should be "between a man and a woman"-a position his base suspects is disingenuous and politically expedient. Since then, he nonetheless helped overturn "don't ask, don't tell," stopped defending the Defense of Marriage Act in court-a passive measure but one that nonetheless helps the cause-and made LGBT rights a signature focus of his foreign-policy agenda. Gay-rights supporters, however, are waiting for him to come out in favor of gay marriage; the president says his position is "evolving." Given Obama's cautious political approach, it is unlikely he'll do so before November 2012. After that, he's got little to lose.
