(Photo: AP/Tom Williams/CQ Roll Call)
Marylanders head to the polls Tuesday to decide who will likely replace Senator Barbara Mikulski, the longest-serving woman in the Senate, who is retiring after 30 years on Capitol Hill. The Democratic primary race has pitted white establishment progressive Chris Van Hollen against black populist insurgent Donna Edwards in a highly competitive contest largely defined by race. Van Hollen polls well among whites, and Edwards shows robust support from African American voters. But the key to the victory runs through Baltimore, where Edwards holds an edge over Van Hollen and a mayoral primary race is likely to increase turnout.
A Monmouth University poll conducted last week was the first to show any candidate with a double–digit lead and Van Hollen jumped way out in front: 52 percent of likely Democratic primary voters favored Van Hollen, while Edwards was the favorite of 36 percent of those surveyed.
But poll numbers tell a different story when it comes to race and gender. Edwards, who has represented Maryland's Fourth District since 2008, would be only the second black woman to serve in the Senate. (Carol Moseley Braun of Illinois was the first.) Edwards has strong grassroots support among African American voters who would like to see her achieve that milestone: 62 percent of black voters surveyed supported Edwards, while only 26 percent supported Van Hollen.
Her support is concentrated in the predominantly black areas of Maryland. Baltimore, Maryland's largest city, is the electoral prize. Edwards led Van Hollen 56 percent to 27 percent among Baltimore Democrats in a March Gonzales Research and Marketing Strategies poll. Edwards also had a commanding lead, 69 percent to 12 percent, in predominantly black Prince George's County-her home turf. Edwards leads with women voters, too-47 to 36 percent.
While Edwards's grassroots supporters are excited about her candidacy, her political peers are not. The Congressional Black Caucus PAC declined to endorse Edwards, and her local supporters viewed that decision as a snub. According to Politico, Edwards attended a secret meeting with several leaders of the group to "voice her frustration" over the lack of support from black officials. But that did not move the needle in her direction as far as those who know her best were concerned. Senators Mikulski and Benjamin Cardin remain neutral, while Martin O'Malley, the former governor and former Democratic presidential contender, endorsed Van Hollen on Monday.
Meanwhile, Van Hollen currently leads among whites with 73 percent to Edwards's 16 percent. His supporters are concentrated in wealthier, white Washington suburbs: 65 percent of Montgomery County Democrats back Van Hollen, who hails from the area. About half of suburban Baltimore Democrats have thrown their support behind the congressman. In the rural Eastern Shore and southern and western Maryland, Van Hollen leads with 50 percent of the vote to Edwards's 30 percent. The remainder are undecided.
Van Hollen, a Montgomery County resident who represented Maryland's Eighth District before deciding to run for Senate, has received endorsements from The Washington Post and The Baltimore Sun. (Meanwhile, the race to replace Van Hollen in the House has shaped up as the most expensive House primary in the country, with several prominent progressives, including Jamie Raskin and Kathleen Matthews, vying for the seat.)
Yet Edwards has a key advantage in the primary contest: The race to succeed Baltimore Mayor Stephanie Rawlings-Blake, who decided not to run for re-election,
is also on the ballot. "The Baltimore mayor's race is an incredibly personal one for many in Baltimore and it's driving a lot of turnout there," says Marcy Stech, the communications director at EMILY's List-the progressive group dedicated to electing pro-choice Democratic women.
Edwards's supporters are energized, but whether that energy will propel them to the polls is the big question.
Turnout for the 2012 Democratic presidential primary was abysmal. Only 17 percent of Maryland's nearly two million eligible Democratic voters cast ballots. In Baltimore, only 15 percent voted; in Prince George's County, turnout was slightly higher, at 16 percent.
Turnout was only slightly better in the areas where Van Hollen polls well. In 2012, Montgomery County turnout was 18 percent, and Baltimore County, which includes the suburbs of the independent city, came in at 17 percent. A 2016 turnout that mirrors the 2012 Democratic primary numbers would be a disaster for Edwards.
Maryland Senate race is shaping up as a microcosm of the presidential primary contest between Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders: A populist underdog is putting up a formidable challenge to an establishment progressive. Clinton is leading Sanders by double digits in Maryland. The former secretary of state has reached out to black voters in Baltimore by holding a town hall meeting with the Mothers of the Movement-a group of Clinton supporters whose children have died in confrontations with law enforcement officers. "They are making a play for higher [African American] turnout in places where Donna's story resonates the most," explains Stech, which would benefit both Clinton and Edwards.
Also working in Edwards's favor is the fact that many progressive women want to send a woman to the White House and a black woman to the very white and male Senate. Edwards may gain from a strong turnout among Sanders supporters as well, as many Maryland progressives, who are throwing their support behind non-establishment candidates, will likely vote for Sanders and Edwards. "We hear from our members all the time that adding diverse perspectives and diverse voices is a top priority," says Stech.
Both the Edwards and Van Hollen campaigns are working overtime to get the vote out, and those efforts are producing impressive results. Maryland is an early-voting state and so far, more than 260,000 Marylanders have already cast a ballot, a record high for early voting. In Baltimore alone, more than 30,000 people have already weighed in. If the early numbers hold true for Tuesday, turnout could reach record levels, a good sign for Edwards.
