Meg Kinnard/AP Photo
Democratic presidential hopeful Senator Elizabeth Warren wraps up a campaign event in Rock Hill, South Carolina, September 28, 2019.
OK, it’s much too early to make assumptions, but this exercise does shed light on the nature of the Democratic coalition and the challenge of mobilization of voters.
If she is the nominee, Warren will need to square several circles: maximize turnout of progressives, activists, people of color, and the young—and also have some appeal to white working-class voters who defected to Trump last time, as well as moderate Republican swing voters.
She obviously can’t do all of these things equally well, but what sort of running mate maximizes the most goals? The decision tree looks something like this:
One of the also-rans? It just doesn’t work. Joe Biden has had the job. A ticket comprised of Warren and Bernie Sanders would be too old. Several of the other contenders are women, and two women on the ticket would probably be a bridge too far, at least for now (though two men on the ticket has been the norm).
How about the proverbial “white guy from the Midwest?” It’s tempting, but there isn’t an obvious one. Sherrod Brown took himself out of the race for president, so presumably he’s out of the race for VP as well (but never say never).
Pete Buttigieg is white and from the Midwest, but he may be problematic—not because he’s gay but because his handling of police violence against African Americans in South Bend may raise concerns with black voters. And the decline in black turnout in 2016 was lethal for Hillary Clinton.
There are just not a lot of plausible white guys from the Midwest right now. Moving further west to Montana, we have Governor Steve Bullock, former Governor Brian Schweitzer, and Senator Jon Tester.
It’s not clear which of these would do the most to enhance Warren’s appeal to white working-class voters, though any of them would probably help. All of them received votes from ticket-splitters who also voted for Trump, who carried Montana by 23 points.
What about a leader with major environmental appeal? There is huge energy, especially among the young, on climate issues, and it will only build. The obvious contender here is Jay Inslee, the governor of Washington state, and a very serious environmental leader. Negatives: He didn’t run a strong presidential campaign and Warren as nominee would need to be all in on climate change herself, and not leave it to her veep.
There is powerful logic in having a running mate of color. Black voters will be expecting a great deal of the Democratic nominee, given all of the racist abuses of the Trump presidency, the huge letdown after Obama, and the new consciousness of the continuing legacy of slavery. A very large black turnout will be essential.
Julián Castro might have been an alternative, but he pretty well immolated himself in the last debate with his cheap-shot lines about Biden’s memory lapses. Looking for possible black running mates, the potential field is surprisingly slim. Cory Booker is just too much the Wall Street Democrat.
The most plausible figure who comes to mind is Andrew Gillum, who very nearly got elected governor of Florida in 2018, running as a flat-out progressive, displaying real style and charisma. He would surely have been elected but for voter suppression, and has wide appeal. His presence on the ticket would galvanize black turnout.
(Gillum’s previous job was mayor of Tallahassee, whose population is about double that of South Bend.)
A Warren-Gillum ticket would put even more pressure on Warren to remind voters of her own working-class roots and commitment to bridge differences of race. It’s a reminder of just how broad the Democratic coalition needs to be.
As I said, it’s much too early for this exercise. For all we know, the Democratic nominee could be Andrew Yang. Or Marianne Williamson. Or me.
