A curious thing has been happening over the last several months: Various moderate or centrist Democrats, purportedly obsessed with pandering to voters’ affordability concerns or winning elections in swing states, have started backing away from climate change rhetoric and climate policy, and speaking more positively about oil and gas.
“Liberals should support America’s oil and gas industry,” wrote Matt Yglesias last December. Lisa Friedman and Brad Plumer, pointing to election losses among climate hawks and several blue states failing to meet their climate goals, report at The New York Times that many party moderates are backing away from climate messaging to focus solely on affordability. “The result could be a less ambitious climate agenda if the party returns to power in Washington,” they write. Some Democrats are even considering new natural gas pipelines, among them New York Gov. Kathy Hochul, who also drastically scaled back the state’s climate law last month.
It’s a bizarre development. There has never been a better time to make the correct argument that slashing the use of fossil fuels, and hence carbon emissions, is the best thing to do for affordability, national security, the economy writ large, and the environment to boot.
Let me review some basic facts. First, social, economic, and environmental damages for a given level of global warming are turning out to be broadly worse than models predicted only a few years ago. Weather disasters are worse, heat waves are worse, economic harms are worse, ocean levels are rising faster, and possibly worst of all, the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) is showing possible signs of decay or collapse. The Gulf Stream that keeps Europe several degrees warmer than it would be otherwise—recall that Berlin is at about the same latitude as Calgary—is part of the AMOC, and could be in danger.
Second, temperatures are now rising much faster than they have in the recent past. The rate has increased from roughly 0.2 degrees Celsius per decade to 0.35 degrees. This may be because of the global phaseout of dirty bunker fuel in ocean shipping, which greatly reduced the emissions of reflective sulfur aerosols, particularly in remote ocean locations.
Third, renewable energy, particularly solar and batteries, is now the cheapest form of 24/7 electricity available almost everywhere in the world. In very sunny locations, like Australia or the American Southwest, it is much cheaper.
Fourth—and I can’t believe I have to point this out—we are currently suffering a serious bout of inflation because Donald Trump badly disrupted the global supply of fossil fuels, and America and most of the rest of the world are still dependent on that source of energy. Gasoline and diesel went up by 50 to 80 percent! Prices will remain elevated for months if not years as everyone fills their petroleum reserves back up. We have met the affordability enemy, and he is us.
And yet, faced with the plainly and painfully disastrous results of America’s addiction to hitherto cheap fracked oil and gas, so-called moderates are wringing their handkerchiefs and suggesting maybe we should build more fossil pipelines.
Now, it is true that taking full advantage of cheap renewable power takes some doing. Simply adding solar to the grid can quickly saturate demand during peak sunlight hours, leading to congestion and curtailment. And because electricity prices are typically set by the last electrons added to the grid, which is still a gas peaker plant in most places, cheap solar and wind will not flow automatically into savings on power bills.
But if you keep adding solar, wind, and storage, plus appropriate transmission capacity, until you start crowding out gas, you will start to see major savings. This isn’t theoretical: In Spain, which has been going gangbusters with solar under Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez, adding some 40 gigawatts since 2019, power prices are now just 42 euros per megawatt-hour—less than a third what they are in Italy, which still relies on gas despite having similar sunny, renewable potential.
Change can happen even faster than that. In early 2024 in Queensland, Australia, the evening point of the solar “duck curve,” where the sun is setting at the same time as commuters get home and switch on all their stuff, was made up almost entirely by gas peaker plants. Just two years later, it is almost entirely batteries—much of them part of the world’s largest system of household batteries, which doubled in size in 2025 alone, thus cutting bills further.
In short, backing away from renewable energy and climate policy is exactly the opposite of what should happen. The longer we dither and procrastinate, the longer we will be stuck paying through the nose for filthy fossil fuel energy, and at the mercy of oil shocks whenever a Republican gets into the presidency and starts one of their patented insane wars of aggression in the Middle East, like they always do.
I suspect what is happening here is a typical case of moderate Democrats being timid, hesitant, and generally feckless. Joe Biden’s aggressive climate policy package seemingly didn’t pay political dividends for Kamala Harris, and certain climate policies don’t poll very well (though others do). Many Americans have been deluded into thinking that climate policy is hippie-dippie environmentalist do-gooder nonsense, like paying a lot more for organic beef, rather than a proven way to cut power prices and provide true energy security for the first time. When Trump won a highly contingent election on a platform including “drill, baby, drill,” moderates gave up. The People had spoken, and what they wanted was to be mercilessly ripped off by Big Oil.
I’m not sure that it’s currently possible to convince swing voters that cheap electricity is cheap. What I do know is that pandering to Americans’ evident belief that fossil fuels are somehow more realistic or practical than renewables is an idiotic luxury. Egypt can’t afford such ludicrous indulgences. And I’m also sure that we’ll never know if a “this cheap power is cheap” messaging effort will work until it is tried.
