Alex Brandon/AP Photo
President Joe Biden talks to firefighters at the Superior Fire Department, January 25, 2024, in Superior, Wisconsin.
Thursday’s report from the Commerce Department displayed an exceptionally good economy. The economy grew at an annual rate of 3.3 percent in the last quarter of 2023, while core inflation, at just 1.7 percent, was actually below the Fed’s 2 percent target. The economy added nearly half a million jobs in the quarter, wage growth remains positive, and consumer spending is up.
The index of consumer confidence soared 29 percent in the past two months, the largest such increase since December 1991. All of this means that the Federal Reserve, which meets next week to decide its next steps, is likely to stick to its plan to cut rates three times this year. It just doesn’t get much better.
But can President Biden reap the political credit he deserves, come November? As pollster Stan Greenberg has pointed out, it’s a mistake to keep harping on how great the economy is, since it’s only marginally better for most working families. What Biden needs to do is make the election future-oriented—talk about how much more needs to be done, could be done in a second Biden term.
“Soft landing” is one of the most dismal metaphors ever devised by economists. They, and their media mimics, use it to mean that we managed to get rid of inflation without resorting to unemployment. That’s to Biden’s credit. He ignored recession-mongers like economists Larry Summers and Jason Furman, who have now given up their perverse advice.
But the economy doesn’t need a soft landing, in the manner of, say, Alaska Airlines, that merely averts disaster. It needs a strong takeoff—even better jobs, wage growth, and more help for working families. Biden needs to emphasize that.
This week’s endorsement of Biden by the UAW suggests the kind of help he will get from a resurgent labor movement. The best Biden “surrogates” in the campaign are working-class people and leaders. And Biden is at his best when he gives speeches like the powerful one he gave to the UAW, in coherent contrast to Trump’s rants.
The New Hampshire primary also included some cause for optimism. Yes, Trump beat Haley by 11 points. But a majority of women, along with a majority of independents, voted for Haley. Fully 77 percent of Haley voters said they’d vote for Biden if Trump were the nominee. In about half the remaining primaries, independents can choose to vote in the GOP primary.
The longer Haley stays in, the more she will remind voters of Trump’s deepening dementia, and the more she and Trump will argue about policy divisions that play to Democratic strengths (cutting Social Security, banning most abortion).
Biden has plenty of other policy challenges. The border is a mess, and Republicans, egged on by Trump, are cynically planning to block a bipartisan deal agreed to by Senate leaders. If Biden wants voters to focus on the good economic news, he will have to do something about the bad news that keeps piling up in the Middle East and in Ukraine.
The election is more than nine months away. Things will likely be different in these two foreign wars by then. It’s up to Biden to make different mean better.
