Iowa—Now, With Some Numbers

by

It was Tip O’Neill, I think, who once noted that if the Democratic Party were transplanted to Europe—that is, to nations that had a multiparty system and proportional representation—it would break up into five separate parties.

Beginning in 1964, with the passage of the Civil Rights Act, the Democrats began to lose their Southern, overtly white-supremacist wing, but as that wing defected to the Republicans, kicking off the GOP’s relentless drive to the right, the Democrats also began to pick up Rockefeller Republicans, then Nixon Republicans, and Wall Street’s social-issue liberals and centrists.

In most ensuing elections, Democrats have been able to find candidates who were able to bridge, more or less, the class differences that substantiated Old Tip’s analysis. But in the wake of the 2008 financial collapse and the ensuing shareholder-only recovery, the party developed a distinctly anti–financialized-capitalism wing, centered in the young, that backed the campaigns of such capitalist critics as Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren.

The initial numbers coming out of Iowa show a corresponding fragmentation of support, with Bernie (26 percent) so far edging Buttigieg (25 percent), Warren a relatively strong third (21 percent), and Biden a lame fourth (13 percent). As The Washington Post’s Dan Balz noted this morning, the eventual winner will have the lowest winning vote share in the nearly 50-year history of the caucuses. There are party wings here, distinct lanes of Democrats, that no candidate has yet been able to cross, as I noted in my column earlier today. In New Hampshire, Nevada, and South Carolina, Buttigieg may be able to rise within the centrist lane as Biden falls, but then he’ll have to contest that lane with the Sixty Billion Dollar Man, Mike Bloomberg. The coming primary season may well feature a Four-Way Fandango—socialist Sanders, social democrat Warren, conventional liberal Buttigieg, sporadically benevolent plutocrat Bloomberg—and all four may yet roll into the Democratic convention, with lanes not yet crossed and nominee not yet decided.

There's too much at stake this November for us to quit. As we navigate another presidential election year, thoughtful independent journalism is more important than ever. We're committed to bringing you the latest news on what's really happening across the country this election season, shining a light on the stories corporate media overlooks and keeping the public informed about how power really works in America.

Quality reporting doesn't come for free, and we don't have corporate backers to rely on to fund our work. Everything we do is thanks to our incredible community of readers, who chip in a few dollars at a time to make what we do possible. This month, we're trying to raise $50,000 to help fuel our election coverage, and we've fallen behind on reaching our goal. Any amount you give today will bring us closer to making our reporting possible—and a generous donor has agreed to match all online donations, so your impact will be doubled.

You can help power this newsroom by making a donation today.