What We Will Know Election Night

by

Thanks to the Trumpian Supreme Court, the election outcomes in Pennsylvania and Wisconsin may well be in doubt next Tuesday night. A high court ruling has overturned a Wisconsin suit providing for extra days to count ballots, and a similar one may also happen regarding Pennsylvania, where Republicans are seeking a Court rehearing to toss out extra counting days that the pre-Barrett Court refused to block.

But despite the efforts of Trump’s toadies in robes to disqualify ballots that arrive after Election Day, Biden seems decently ahead in both states, and could win one or both based on ballots cast and counted by Election Day.

Even if those swing states are in limbo as of Tuesday midnight, there are two fallbacks, North Carolina and Florida. At this writing, Biden seems narrowly ahead in both, and these states will report their results by election night.

Here’s the arithmetic. If Biden wins the predicted swing states where he’s well ahead (Michigan, Minnesota, Arizona, New Hampshire, Nevada, and Maine-02), plus the ones regarded as safe, that gets him to 260 electoral votes, without Pennsylvania or Wisconsin.

He needs only one of four other states to get to 270 votes or more. That could be North Carolina, Florida, Pennsylvania, or Wisconsin. So while we may go to bed not knowing who won, Biden may actually win the election on Election Day.

You can count on the Prospect, can we count on you?

There's no paywall here. Your donations power our newsroom as we report on ideas, politics and power — and what’s really at stake as we navigate another presidential election year. Please, become a member, or make a one-time donation, today. Thank you!