Chris Seward/AP Photo
Democratic Sens. Michael Garrett, left, and Natasha R. Marcus, with other Democrats, hold signs in protest after the state Senate voted to override Gov. Roy Cooper’s veto of a restrictive abortion bill, May 16, 2023, in Raleigh, North Carolina.
If there were any doubt left about where far-right, hive-mind Republican state lawmakers plan to go on abortion questions, look no further than North Carolina. In Raleigh on Wednesday, the state legislature, buoyed by one party-switching Democrat giving Republicans a legislative supermajority, voted to override Gov. Roy Cooper’s veto of a 12-week abortion ban. That vote is one that will be top of mind for voters in Virginia.
Abortion is one of the top issues, if not the key concern, in this year’s state legislative elections. Virginia’s primary elections are June 20—four days before the one-year anniversary of Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health Organization—and early voting is under way.
After failing to barely nudge his presidential candidacy into name-recognition territory, Virginia Gov. Glenn Youngkin has said that he plans to forgo a White House run this year—opting to shore up his footing at home to help further his national ambitions. Last week, he trumpeted his anti-abortion credentials again by emphasizing his eagerness to sign a 15-week abortion ban should one get to his desk. Currently, Virginia permits abortions up to 26 weeks.
To accomplish those ends, Youngkin has set his sights on securing a governing trifecta in the state legislative races. The state legislature is currently divided: Republicans hold the House of Delegates, while Democrats have a slender Senate majority, after narrowly wining a Norfolk-Virginia Beach seat in a January special election.
Senate Democrats in Virginia have built a brick wall, as Sen. L. Louise Lucas, the president pro tempore, has called it, to block anti-abortion legislation. Earlier this year, a state Senate panel rejected a bill proposing a 15-week ban that the governor had supported. But Republicans have also fought off attempts to put a constitutional amendment guaranteeing abortion rights before voters.
Despite Youngkin’s “cautious optimism” about coming up with a bill, Republican leaders in the chamber have consistently refused to force the issue by introducing measures. They appeared worried that any such legislation would force GOP lawmakers into defensive crouches on the campaign trail. Virginia Republicans are trying to keep their views as noncommittal as possible at a time when most Virginia voters, like most Americans, support abortion rights.
Virginia is now the last holdout in a region gripped by abortion controversies. Before the North Carolina vote, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis had already steered a six-week ban into place; Georgia already had one. Tennessee banned abortion with few exceptions. South Carolina has five women known as the “Sister Senators”—three Republicans, an independent, and a Democrat—who have moved to block an extreme abortion ban; its 22-week ban (preserved after the state supreme court blocked a six-week ban) is now one of the least restrictive in the South, although the state has other laws that make obtaining an abortion difficult.
Tarina Keene, executive director of REPRO Rising Virginia, expects the North Carolina developments to have a strong influence on Virginia voters. The North Carolina 12-week ban permits exceptions for rape and incest until 20 weeks, and life-threatening fetal abnormalities until 24 weeks. There are no limits for medical emergencies. “What they’re doing [in North Carolina] is my fear of what could happen in Virginia if we have an anti-abortion trifecta come back into power after November of 2023,” Keene says.
Virginia is now the last holdout in a region gripped by abortion controversies.
After last year’s legislative elections in North Carolina, Rep. Tricia Cotham, a longtime Democratic state representative who had returned to the legislature after a hiatus, switched to the Republican Party, giving the GOP the votes they needed to override Cooper’s veto. Cooper’s attempt to persuade four Republicans (including Cotham) who had backed abortion rights in the past to stand up against a ban failed. The new law takes effect July 1.
“People underestimate the insidiousness, the motivation, and the pure persistence of those who want to outright ban abortion in this country,” Keene says. “They will stop at nothing to do it—and that includes lying, that includes making it seem as though their intentions are, as Youngkin does, are [rooted] in trying to find consensus.”
A March 2023 Washington Post/George Mason University-Schar School of Government poll showed that 45 percent disapprove of Youngkin’s handling of abortion; 33 percent approve and 22 percent had no opinion. A slim majority supported a 15-week ban by three percentage points. An October 2022 Christopher Newport University-Wason Center poll also showed a narrow majority of Virginians supporting a 15-week ban.
State lawmakers will have to navigate new districts. Democrats eliminated some Republican gerrymanders in the most recent redistricting exercise. As of 2021, the state supreme court draws legislative maps, and many observers have concluded that they have been designed to avoid the kinds of blatant racial “packing and cracking” and incumbent protection maneuvers that have historically marred these efforts. “It looks like the outcome closely matched the intention of the law that was passed,” data scientist Sam Wang, who heads the Princeton Gerrymandering Project, told the Virginia Mercury. “Bottom line is: It looks pretty fair.”
There are several very competitive primary contests among the 40 Senate district races. One key contest pits Democrat Lashrecse Aird, a former member of the House of Delegates and an abortion rights supporter, against Republican Sen. Joe Morrissey, a pro-life Catholic in a newly created majority-minority district that includes Petersburg and leans Democratic. Morrissey has previously expressed support for a 15-week ban. Keene points to Morrissey as someone who could play a role similar to that of North Carolina’s Cotham, providing a deciding vote on abortion legislation. “He’s someone that should not be underestimated,” says Keene.
Another key Senate primary race features Democratic Sen. Monty Mason against Republican York/Poquoson Sheriff Danny Diggs in another southeastern district almost evenly split between Republicans and Democrats. The district includes Newport News and Williamsburg, the College of William and Mary campus, and Republican strongholds like Poquoson City. The youth vote will be key here; nearly 23 percent of eligible Virginia youth voted in the 2022 midterms.
Democratic turnout hinges on the dense population centers: the Washington suburbs of Northern Virginia (where low Democratic turnout contributed to Youngkin’s slim victory over former governor Terry McAuliffe in 2021), Richmond, the Hampton Roads region including Virginia Beach and Norfolk, and Albemarle County, home to the University of Virginia’s flagship campus at Charlottesville. The Republican rural stronghold of southwestern Virginia lost almost 9 percent of its population over the past decade, and has been divided by fears of becoming a “destination” for abortions. Some towns are now working on zoning regulations to prevent clinics from opening in their jurisdictions.
One candidate, President Trump, isn’t on the ballot, but he lives rent-free in many voters’ heads, coloring their views about where the state is headed. Youngkin is inescapably tethered to him. (Views on the two men, of course, break along sharp partisan lines.) The Washington Post/George Mason University poll found that 60 percent of respondents believe Youngkin’s ideas and policies resemble Trump’s. “Every time he gets closer to winning the Republican nomination, it becomes less likely that Republicans will take over the state Senate after this fall’s election.” says David Toscano, a former Democratic leader in the Virginia House of Delegates.
Prior to the closely watched North Carolina vote, Democrats had a slight edge in Senate races and could possibly take back the House, but Republicans weren’t out of the running. Nevertheless, the primary results will indicate how seriously Virginia voters take new Republican threats to abortion rights, particularly among Democrats who did not vote in the 2021 governor’s race. But November is a long way off, and Virginia remains a very narrowly divided state.
