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I am a big fan of almost everything Paul Krugman writes, and I cheered his warnings that America didn’t need to be pushed into recession to cool inflation and his proposed policies to get it to a “soft landing.”
But I worry now that both Krugman and President Biden will conclude that the success of the administration’s macroeconomic policies was also a success with ordinary Americans. It wasn’t, if you looked at how much they struggled financially in this inflationary era. Their rating the economy as “poor” was not a dystopian view shaped by conservative media and politicians.
It turns out that Krugman makes the same case against MAGA Republicans on immigration and crime. He is wrong there, too. And looking at the reality will put Democrats in a much better position to address the top issues in this election.
To make the point on how out of touch MAGA hard-liners are with reality, Krugman cites South Dakota’s Republican Gov. Kristi Noem, who “warned that President Biden is ‘remaking’ America,’ turning us into Europe.” In a revealing first gut response, Krugman writes, “My first thought was: So, he’s going to raise our life expectancy by five or six years?”
My first thoughts were the packed boats with refugees struggling to get to Europe, the lives lost, the political leaders trying to get control of their borders, and the politics of immigration. Immigration has surged to become one of the top issues across all of Europe.
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My polling already showed an open border to be one of Americans’ top fears if Joe Biden were re-elected. Fortunately, Biden and the Democrats in the Senate have acknowledged the crisis and embraced new policies to bring it under control. “I will close the border if you give me the powers,” Biden has said.
Krugman posits the same dynamic on the economy. Republicans are painting a picture of a dark economy with the expected recession just ahead. To make this work, he cherry-picks findings and leaves out contradictory survey findings to describe an economy based on “reality.” He concludes, “Inflation has plunged and is more or less where the Federal Reserve wants it to be. And people are feeling it.”
The people feeling it is the rub.
The elite cheer that inflation has come down to 3.5 percent is itself the problem. Why don’t voters want to thank President Biden and embrace the economists who won the debate?
But what does 3.5 percent mean? It means that the rate of increase in prices is still much higher than it was under prior presidents. Prices haven’t gone down. Prices are still 17 percent higher than before the pandemic and 20 percent higher for a basket of groceries.
Writing about the recent consumer confidence survey, Krugman did not mention the results for questions it asked about the “family’s current financial situation.” The share who answered “good” has been dropping since last summer and dropped again in December.
Gallup released its monthly economic confidence poll, with the headline “Economic Mood Improves, but Inflation Still Vexing Americans.” It’s the Democrats who are responsible for the improvement. But the percentage who rate the economy as “poor” is 45 percent—barely changed from the previous month. And critically, there has been no change in the 63 percent who think “high prices pose a severe or moderate financial hardship.”
Krugman and others just ignore the fact that the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index is 20 points lower than when Trump was president. The Gallup poll reports its findings under the title “Economic Confidence Improves to Highest Level in Two Years, but Still Low.”
This inflationary period, produced by the pandemic and the Ukraine war, has left the average family exhausted after 30 months of covering the monthly bills. Right now, in every country where I look at surveys, high prices are the top problem.
So, my advice to Biden on how to talk about economic improvement is “Get over it.” Talk instead about people’s top worry, prices. Regret what working people have had to weather, remind them how you helped and who didn’t, call out the huge profits that keep prices high, and then, present a bold contrasting agenda for the future.
And take off those rose-colored glasses on other issues, too. For his part, Krugman has also noted that “crime declined significantly in 2023.” I worry that he and others would jump on that tally to say that the crime problem was exaggerated.
He reminded readers that New York City was not an “urban wasteland,” as depicted in MAGAworld, but one of the safest big cities in the world, visited by 50 million Americans last year.
Democrats lead most major Americans cities, and their citizens have lived through three years of growing homelessness and violent crime. That made crime nearly the top problem for Blacks, Hispanics, and others in our base. With most believing “defunding the police” was high on our agenda, Republicans enjoy double-digit advantages on trust to handle crime. Mayors’ races in New York, Chicago, Los Angeles, and elsewhere were fought out on these issues.
In Krugman’s “rational world,” this year’s drop in the crime rate would lead Democratic voters to be more sanguine on the state of the cities and “would have added to the good economy by fostering a sense that things are improving.”
In the areas of immigration, the economy, and crime, Krugman’s account of an America where “things are improving” is countered by the reality faced by the ordinary voter. Americans want change, and I think Biden can offer a powerful choice in all three areas.
