Battling to a Win in 2022

Democrats face daunting internal problems and headwinds to get to a winning margin in the 2022 midterms. Yet it is possible.

To investigate this, we conducted a 2,500-person national and battleground-state survey, with large oversamples of the Black, Hispanic, and Asian American (AAPI) communities. The survey also maintains the level of working-class voters in the electorate that we saw in Donald Trump’s campaign in 2020: 61 percent without a four-year college degree (my definition of working class). The white working class still forms 46 percent of the survey respondents.

To protect against Trump voters’ distrust of polls and elites—something I learned about from the polling on Netanyahu in Israel and Brexit voters in Britain—I put up the recalled Trump vote for white working-class women to 57 percent (a 17-point Trump margin) and for the men to 65 percent (27-point margin).

This survey shows an electorate that looks miserable for Democrats. Only 28 percent believe the country is on the “right track.” They view Republicans more favorably than Democrats, “Republicans in Congress” more favorably than “Democrats in Congress,” and give Donald Trump a higher job approval rating than they do Joe Biden.

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The top issue by far is the cost of living. After that comes the economy and jobs, and crime and violence. And Republicans have a fast-building advantage on each, going from 4 points on the cost of living to 14 points on crime and 15 points on the economy. Democrats struggle to be more trusted on the economy.

Crime is a top-tier issue for Hispanics, Asian Americans (AAPI), Gen Z, and millennials; and for Blacks it is at parity with the cost of living. Democrats lose Asian Americans by 9 points on who is better on crime. And the biggest worry in the survey, if Democrats were to win control of the Congress, would be a surge of crime and homelessness and attacks on police. Major parts of the Democratic base accept Trump’s dire warning that America has never been more at risk from crime, open borders, disrespect for police, and a lack of pride in America.

And finally, 54 percent of Republicans say they are following the election with the highest level of interest on a 10-point ladder scale, 8 points higher than Democrats. To estimate likely turnout, we highlight which voters put themselves from 8 to 10 on that ladder. All voters are at 67 percent, but Blacks, Hispanics, and AAPI voters trail that level by about 10 points, and Gen Z voters trail by 20.

Yet Democrats are, despite all these problems, at a 2-point advantage in the generic congressional vote, with still more cards to play.

This poll shows how Democrats could readily lose their lead and fall behind if they make the wrong choices, particularly on the cost of living and crime. There are deep frustrations running through the electorate that Republicans will never cease to exploit. But there is also a strategy for Democrats to prevail.

Roe v. Wade, the Supreme Court, and the January 6th Committee

A great portion of the change in the midterm outlook has to do with the repeal of Roe v. Wade, but not all of it.

Women of all classes and races responded with almost identical anger to the Supreme Court decision. Both white women and women of color disapprove by 61 to 39 percent, with 43 percent disapproving strongly. Almost an identical number of college-educated and working-class women disapproved (60 percent among the latter), and among those working-class women under 50 years of age, disapproval jumps to 70 percent. College-educated women responded similarly, with 63 percent disapproval. Among those under 50 years, 67 percent disapproved and 51 percent strongly.

This translates into Democrats now performing well with white college-educated women (a 17-point margin), delivering some base-like numbers after a few years of seeing this group being diverted by other issues. That could be translating into stronger suburban numbers. While all white working-class women look stable from 2020, that is not true of women under 50, where Republicans have only a 4-point lead.

Almost 60 percent of moderate Republicans disapproved of the abortion decision, and 13 percent are already voting Democratic. That is a touch ahead of previous cycles.

We tested a list of outcomes if Republicans win control of the Senate and House. “Passing a law to ban abortion nationally and women losing equal rights forever” is virtually the top worry for Black and Hispanic voters, white college women, under-50 working-class women, unmarried, and white unmarried women. That is the top worry for Gen Z voters and white millennials. And it was also the top worry of moderate Republicans.

Republicans have already announced the goal of making abortion illegal nationally, and by highlighting that risk Democrats may allow them to make further gains.

Roe cannot account for all the changes in the state of the race, however, since the decision mainly angered women.

In this same period, we have watched the massacres with assault rifles and Republicans limiting the government’s response, and Supreme Court justices acting as conservative activists on Roe, gun safety, and climate change. And the January 6th Committee has finally brought the full picture of Trump’s insurrection to public awareness.

Republicans were already fully consolidated behind Republican candidates in November. But now, both liberal and moderate Democrats are just as fully consolidated behind Democratic candidates. Only 4 percent of the former and 8 percent of the latter are voting Republican. The Republican defectors from the Trump era are giving Democrats big margins again. Some voters are mentioning a fear of white supremacists being emboldened and the elections being challenged again.

The Asian American vote is very worrisome here, but both the Black and Hispanic vote margins are more than respectable compared to 2020 and previous polling this cycle.

Put all that together and you end up defying the fundamentals of U.S. midterm elections to make November look close.

Contesting the Cost of Living

To succeed, Democrats must be consumed with addressing the cost of living, highlight what they are doing, and draw a powerful contrast with the Republicans.

Despite the headwinds, this survey shows they can get heard and defeat the Republicans on an issue where the Republicans have a strong advantage. It starts with addressing working people, the non-four-year-college graduates who dominate in the electorate and our base.

Wages and median income have not remotely kept up with rising prices. President Biden used to talk about people living paycheck to paycheck, and that got him an audience. The salience of “living paycheck to paycheck” is even more true today. Being seen is a precondition to getting heard.

In fact, most Americans lost wages in the Bush decade of spiking inequality and ultimately financial crash. Under Obama, they only got back to pre-crisis levels of employment in his final year. And then unemployment spiked with COVID; some sectors got higher pay, but not most Americans. Inflation is a huge slap for most working Americans who’ve seen only decades of wage decline.

Here we tested the Democratic candidate saying, “most Americans haven’t seen a real wage increase in 40 years.” In our focus groups, Biden and Trump voters thanked the moderator for saying that. That comment gave them the space to talk about what’s happening with the cost of living.

Leaders in Britain, Australia, and France have made the argument that employment and jobs have risen—and lost ground. President Biden has also lost ground on his overall approval and handling of the economy.

This past weekend across the Sunday shows, Democratic participants talked about the job gains and low unemployment and expressed uncertainty that America was in recession. With about 80 percent describing the state of the economy as “bad,” the former Republican pollster Frank Luntz rightly pointed out that leaders have to feel their pain.

In reality, this month, prices rose dramatically faster than wages.

The jury is out on whether Democrats will contest the cost of living.

Democratic candidates need to join their own battle against big corporations. Their high prices and profits are enriching CEOs and shareholders, and their influence has kept their taxes low. Democrats can say “Enough!” and work to stop price-gouging, raise taxes on billionaires and corporations, and fight unlimited campaign spending. Adding a corporate minimum tax in the Inflation Reduction Act is helpful to this cause. (It would have been stronger if it included the increased tax relief for poor, working-class, and middle-class families.)

Saying that “corporations are … using the cover of inflation to increase their profits” because “they face little competition,” and explaining how Democrats are working to stop that, gets a net positive of 3 points, when Democrats are losing the cost-of-living comparison by 4 points and the economy by 15. Taking on big corporations and corporate monopolies that are driving up prices lifts Democrats.

Liberal Democrats responded to this critique of corporate profits driving up prices, but it also got a 2-to-1 warm response among white working-class voters, men and women, under 50 years. And white millennial and Gen Z voters gave it a positive response by a 20-point margin.

Even one-fifth of the Trump loyalists gave this tough populist response by a Democrat a warm response. So did one-quarter of the moderate Republicans.

It turns out voters have a deep distaste for CEOs of big corporations, corporate monopolies, and many of the big tech companies. One can hardly find a more popular idea than taxing billionaires. Fully 63 percent of voters are warm to it, triple the number against it. It gets a positive response from over 40 percent of Trump loyalists, 50 percent of moderates, and 60 percent of Republican defectors.

Half the sample heard the Democratic candidate hitting the big corporations on driving up prices and offering the contrast between what Democrats and Republicans would do. At the end of the survey, the Democrats held their 2-point margin—even after all the Republican attacks on inflation, crime, and borders.

When Democrats contest the cost of living with the message we proposed, it has a powerful impact on the Democratic Party’s brand. Looking at the margin on which party would be better on a range of issues, Democrats gained 11 points on “getting things done,” 7 points on “standing up to elites,” and 7 points on “prioritizing my community and seeing government looks out for it.”

Intriguingly, Democrats gained significantly on “not pushing America to be polarized.” Confronting corporate power on wages, prices, and influence was unifying.

Weapons in Battling the Cost of Living

Has anybody noticed what Democratic and Republican governors are doing to address the cost of living? They are trying to give families more money through cutting the gasoline tax, cutting the income tax, and sending rebates to households and car owners.

Democrats have a unique chance because of how favorable and unique the help provided to people was during the pandemic, when both parties in Congress and President Trump provided direct payments to individual households. After years of decline and uncertainty, the government was helping people and saving businesses, without bureaucracy or new programs.

That transformed perceptions of working-class voters under 50 years who were the main beneficiaries, as well as those least burdened by the culture wars that made others more anti-government. The $1,400 direct payments were the most popular for Trump voters in our research; they helped Democrats win two Senate seats in Georgia in early 2021.

For some reason, Democrats have not embraced the expansion of the Child Tax Credit on their watch as a primary policy offer, and contrast in the battle over the cost of living with Republicans. The Child Tax Credit was received monthly, directly into household checking accounts in payments of $300 or $250, depending on the age of the child. Unfortunately, it expired at the beginning of the year, as Build Back Better languished.

The CTC is less popular among college graduates and higher-income voters where Democrats have won more of the seats. It is more popular with working-class voters where Republicans have won more of theirs. It dramatically helps Blacks and Hispanics, lifting more than half out of poverty while it was in place. Yet it has not been embraced as part of a strategy to engage those voters.

In the poll we conducted in June, promising “a higher child tax credit a month that gives tax relief to poor, working, and middle-class families with children” was seen as favorable overall by 10 points. It rose to a margin of over 25 points with Blacks, white millennial and Gen Z voters, parents, CTC recipients, and white working-class women under 50 years.

When we give voters a list of things Democrats have accomplished, at the top was what they did on guns and pushing up wages of federal contractors, but the increased Child Tax Credit was next with Blacks, Hispanics, Gen Z, millennials, and CTC recipients. That it was ranked in the same way with under-50 white working-class voters should stop the debate.

Infrastructure did not make the top ranking for these voters.

Tax cuts are the most powerful tool for motivating our so-called base and reaching targeted white working-class voters. That Republicans would take away the Child Tax Credit and raise their taxes was the second-strongest attack among these same groups. For the white working class under 50, it ranked just behind them making abortion illegal nationally and the rich not paying higher taxes.

So, cutting taxes is weapon number one—combined with voters’ overwhelming support for raising taxes on billionaires and big corporations. There could not be a more powerful choice in contesting who will help with the cost of living.

The other is health care costs, the consuming issue of every election and where Democrats still have an 8-point advantage on which party will do a better job.

Democrats are about to deliver in a reconciliation bill—one desperately hopes—sustained subsidies to keep health insurance premiums low and to give Medicare the ability to negotiate lower prescription drug prices. Democrats have been capping premiums at 8.5 percent of income, though nobody knows it. Democrats being able to push down drug prices for seniors will feature one of the most popular policies Democrats have sought to achieve.

Republicans opposed all policies to restrain health care costs. The attack—“Republicans voted against allowing the government to negotiate lower drug prices. They even voted against the government setting a lower price for insulin”—was the third-strongest attack and right near the top for Hispanics, AAPI, and white millennial and Gen Z voters.

Managing Crime, Massacres, and Assault Weapons

Democrats are in such a weakened position on crime that they have to get their strategy and message just right, or face losses ahead.

In this survey, the crime message used by many Democrats loses to the Republican attack on defunding the police by 10 points, 12 points behind the congressional margin.

Half the respondents heard this message debate on crime. Among those voters, Democrats lost 2 points off of the starting margin. The race would be even again.

In the other half, Democrats were attacked but did not respond; there is no change in the margin at the end. Democrats hold onto their 2-point lead.

I fought for years against political consultants and candidates who argued that talking about crime or welfare puts you on the terrain of the opponent. But in this case, what Democrats are proposing is just not reassuring. I am suggesting—for now—not joining the debate.

In earlier surveys, we conducted a similar exercise where the focus was on the police, including funding, respect, and reform. That exercise led to Democrats growing their margin by 3 points compared to not addressing the issue. Getting Democrats to a credible position on crime and police remains a strategic imperative.

Even from this weakened position on crime, Democrats can gain further points with a straight attack on massacres and assault weapons. It produces the biggest shift to the Democrats in the poll—a 2-point gain for the portion of the survey that heard Democrats making this attack.

The issue had not translated into partisan gains yet, like Roe, perhaps because of the usual skepticism and powerlessness. The bipartisan bill had strong public support, but voters recognize that it did not resolve the issue.

The Democratic message attacked the Republicans for refusing to consider bolder steps, like comprehensive background checks or raising the purchase age for assault weapons to 21. A 52-seat Senate majority that ends the filibuster will do all that and allow cities to fully regulate guns. That message built off of Republicans blocking action and Democrats finally doing something about the massacres.

Achieving the 52-seat majority may give people the sense that this can be done and overcome some of the sense of powerlessness impacting Democratic turnout.

The Democratic message got a lot of warm responses—14 points more than the cool ones—with a 32-point intensity.

Republicans having control of Congress meaning that “assault weapons can still be bought by 18-year-olds and no stop to massacres” was the message that most upset voters. Asian Americans, Blacks, and Hispanics were off-the-chart upset. They were joined in the Democratic base by liberal and moderate Democrats, white college women, and Democratic defectors.

It is at the top of the upset chart for Cheney conservatives and moderate Republicans. It was the strongest for Republican defectors, who seem to be coming back to their earlier position.

The Democratic Message

We conducted a powerful message for the midterm election that learns from all the findings of this survey. It identifies with people living paycheck to paycheck. It says, working people haven’t seen a pay increase in years, and Washington doesn’t get it. These are very tough times, and voters have to see you get it and feel it.

You have to talk about inflation killing people, recognizing how much they are on the edge. (This is a hard message to deliver if you say that Democrats are delivering good-paying jobs.) Going after the big corporations, oil companies, Big Tech, and their monopolies puts you on the right side of an imbalance they want political leaders to fight, including their price-gouging.

Democrats then highlight credibly what they did to help—tax relief for poor, working families, and the middle class, reduced health care premiums, and negotiating lower prescription drug costs. Republicans get their money from big oil and drug companies and oppose tax relief for working people and raising taxes on big corporations.

With the passage of the Inflation Reduction Act in August, the Democrats deliver the policies in the message and Republicans play their part defending the billionaires and big corporations.

It includes Democrats wanting safe communities where we can grow the middle class again.

We did not test this message on its own, but against a Republican saying America has never been more at risk from crime, people pouring through the borders, the canceling of history, and threats to police.

The Democratic message was powerfully motivating for both liberal and moderate Democrats. It united this fractious party.

And it was chosen by 15 percent of Trump loyalists and Cheney conservatives and a third of moderate Republicans. Most stunningly, the Democratic message won a big majority of white millennial and Gen Z voters, and a majority of under-50 white working-class voters.

At the end of the survey, the Democrats gained 3 points with under-50 white working-class voters (17 percent of the electorate) and CTC recipients (17 percent). They gained 9 points with disability families (15 percent), who remain invisible to those trying to make gains in the working class.

But Democrats have problems in their base that are impacting the turnout of Blacks and Hispanics and the vote of Asian American (AAPI) voters. In this survey exercise, I asked voters to choose between a Democratic message, with its hugely popular policies, and a Republican message, embodying Trump’s words on making America great again, that led with crime and borders and ended with the police.

A stunning 28 percent of Blacks chose the America First message. But more alarming, 45 percent of AAPI voters and 47 percent of Hispanics did too.

Other questions on transgender participation in women’s sports, education about gender issues, and critical race theory suggest erosion on other parts of the social liberal agenda. But that did not produce defections in the Democratic vote among Blacks, Hispanics, and AAPI voters. It also did not raise their interest in voting in a midterm election where the engagement was very low.

Getting It Right

This is an ugly time to hold an election, and there are so many things Democrats have to do right to stay in the game. The gun massacres, Roe, the activist Supreme Court, and the January 6th Committee have put the Democrats into a very close race in the generic ballot—but getting really ahead requires they succeed in five things:

First, they have to make inflation their consuming priority and contest it with the Republicans. Democrats are not yet there.

Second, Democrats have to manage the crime issue, and that is a work in progress.

Third, Democrats have to get the most out of massacres and the gun issue, and that message asks for 52 votes and ending the filibuster. That empowers people.

Fourth, they should embrace the battle to stop Republicans from making abortion illegal nationally. The fear of what Republicans might do has great power.

And fifth, they should embrace the reconciliation bill when it passes, as Democrats helping poor, working, and middle-class families and fighting the big corporations, billionaires, and their lobbyists—and not as Democrats being rewarded for doing a good job or keeping their promises. This election, as always, has to be about the ordinary citizen, not the politicians.