Tom Williams/CQ Roll Call via AP Images
Teddy bears, meant to represent West Virginia children, appear on the National Mall during an event to urge Congress to expand the Child Tax Credit, February 2, 2022.
The American Rescue Plan’s expanded Child Tax Credit (CTC), which provided families a monthly check of up to $300 per child, was touted as one of the most critical policies of the Biden administration. But a lack of support from Republicans and Sen. Joe Manchin (D-WV) prevented the CTC from being extended. Nearly a year after the end of the policy, data continues to roll out on just how much families have suffered without it in place.
Last week, the Boston University School of Public Health and Boston Medical Center released a study on how the discontinuation of the policy affected families. According to the research, food insufficiency among families with children increased 25 percent over the six months after the expanded CTC ended. In other studies, the CTC was estimated to have lifted almost four million children out of poverty, most of whom slid back after the expiration.
Families have been vocal about their need for the expanded Child Tax Credit. As the Prospect previously reported, a survey from ParentsTogether Action found that 9 out of 10 families faced financial insecurity after the credit ended.
As the midterms creep closer, the question remains as to whether this issue will get the national attention it has lacked thus far, and which party will suffer for it.
The Child Tax Credit is still an incredibly important issue to the Democratic base. As Stanley Greenberg wrote for the Prospect, pointing out the failure of Republicans to back the continued expansion of the credit could be a powerful tool for Democrats. Voters respond well to the party when they are reminded of the policy’s effectiveness.
But the issue has largely disappeared from the Democratic platform going into the 2022 midterms. The issue has fallen to the background in favor of abortion access, and more recently, topics like inflation and Social Security.
Democrats often log the expansion of the Child Tax Credit as a success on their end, and voters usually respond positively to that assumption. But the credit did expire, and people are struggling in the face of the tumultuous economy. The culprit is not entirely clear to voters without some explanation. It is easy to blame Republicans for not backing the credit, but the fact remains that Democrats had full control of Washington and the ability to pass measures on a party-line vote, yet still allowed the credit to be gutted.
The credit would probably still be in place if not for Manchin. When negotiating what was then called the Build Back Better Act, Manchin stipulated that the expanded credit come with a work requirement, which would prevent nearly 40 million children from receiving the aid.
Manchin also privately told colleagues that poor families would waste the money on drugs. This is unfounded: Studies indicate that low-income families used over 90 percent of the expanded CTC for basic necessities. But Manchin would not be persuaded, and ultimately the credit was axed in the final Inflation Reduction Act.
Due to the lack of 50 votes, there has not been much energy put toward renewing the expanded credit. The success of the CTC has come up sparingly, like in Vice President Kamala Harris’s remarks at a Democratic National Committee finance event in New Jersey. And in September, Democratic senators and representatives, led by Sen. Cory Booker (D-NJ), released a statement calling for the reinstatement of the policy before the end of the year. “We should have never allowed this critical program to lapse, and we should not extend corporate tax breaks at the end of this year without also extending the expanded Child Tax Credit,” the representatives wrote.
A survey from ParentsTogether Action found that 9 out of 10 families faced financial insecurity after the credit ended.
The ParentsTogether Action survey also found that nearly 80 percent of recipient respondents said the check made a “huge difference” for the finances of the family. Census Bureau data released in September showed child poverty dropped to a “record low” of 5 percent in 2021, partially as a result of the expanded credit. And previous research from the authors at Boston University found an associated reduction of food insufficiency of about 26 percent.
Voters have a lot on their minds with the midterms looming. Given that assigning blame on the expanded CTC is so complicated, voters, and their representatives, seem content to play up every other hot-button issue. At least the Democrats can claim to have a cohesive strategy on other issues—as long as Manchin is on board, anything can happen.
But there are other routes to the same destination. Obtaining just one more seat in the Senate would make Manchin’s vote irrelevant. If Democrats can pull this off while holding the House, the agenda could move forward. President Biden has been clear on this strategy for other issues, like abortion after the overturn of Roe v. Wade.
There just isn’t the same energy for the CTC, despite its popularity and proven efficacy. Democrats struggle to articulate who is to blame without incriminating themselves. But if the messaging was clear enough, there could be a road to victory. The fact that Democrats have failed to deploy this tactic for such an important issue shows the pitfalls of Democratic messaging during the midterms.
