Alex Brandon/AP Photo
Supporters of President Trump wait for him to speak at a campaign rally at Tucson International Airport, October 19, 2020.
The 2020 election demolished the premise that demographic shifts could create a Democratic majority if we just redoubled efforts to rally “the base.” Statistically, America may indeed become a majority-minority nation by 2050, but this election demonstrated that ethnic groups do not vote as blocs.
The New York Times recently published an exhaustive compilation showing a net swing to Trump in areas with large Latino and Asian American populations, in locations as varied as Chicago, Philadelphia, Houston, Miami, and New York.
Exit polls showed about a six-point swing to Trump among Blacks, five points among Hispanics, and seven points among Asian Americans.
There is a great deal of data still to be analyzed, and we don’t yet have good research that sheds definitive light on why voters of different backgrounds voted as they did, but some preliminary assessments suggest the following.
Hispanic Voters Are Far From a Monolithic Group. In Arizona, where the Latino/a community has mounted a decade-long fight against Republicans’ viciously anti-immigrant laws and enforcement actions, the Hispanic vote broke heavily for Democrats, as expected.
But in the Rio Grande Valley, and above all in Florida, there was a swing to Trump. This is shocking because of Trump’s vicious anti-immigrant rhetoric and policies.
If we unpack what happened in different parts of the country, Florida is relatively easy to explain. Not only are Cuban Americans more heavily Republican, but the Republicans’ attempt to associate Biden with socialism also resonated with Venezuelan Americans.
Beyond that, the Koch brothers dumped huge sums into a Florida organization called LIBRE, which combines practical services like English as a second language instruction with right-wing propaganda. Just for signing up for a LIBRE event, you can get a free iPad.
At the risk of ethnic stereotyping, some have also contended that Trump was a classic caudillo figure, who evoked the appeal of machismo. In all groups, men broke for Trump more than women.
As evangelicals have made inroads into Latino communities, many vote as social conservatives—opposed to abortion and LGBT rights, and supportive of traditional family values. As Democrats have failed to deliver the kind of tangible pocketbook benefits once provided to immigrants, and as unions have been weakened, there are few progressive economic appeals to offset the conservative social ones.
Pull Up the Ladder. By definition, “immigrants” who can vote are citizens. It’s too easy to assume that all such immigrants necessarily sympathize with others from the same ethnic group who are undocumented.
Immigrants who came here legally and played by the rules may not identify with the undocumented. Some see them as trouble—people desperate for work who drive down wages, or draw police into the community. With this viewpoint, Trump is seen as a source of order.
It’s a very old story. A century ago, many German Jewish immigrants, who tended to be educated and eager to assimilate, were embarrassed by their Yiddish-speaking co-religionists from the shtetls of Eastern Europe.
Class Cuts Both Ways. Many immigrants run small businesses. In this role, they often take on the concerns and objectives of other businesspeople: law and order, low taxes, cheap labor. Paradoxically, the better America is at assimilating immigrants, the more immigrants are likely to vote their class rather than their ethnicity.
The Asian American community was a particular disappointment for the majority-minority argument. Many of South Asian and East Asian background are successful entrepreneurs or operate family businesses. On average, Asian Americans had a median household income of $87,194 in 2018, or 38 percent above the national median.
It’s still the case that people of color voted overwhelmingly Democratic. Biden won 87 percent of the Black vote and 66 percent of the Latino vote. And it’s still the case that we need heroic efforts to register African Americans, Latinos, and other groups subjected to voter suppression.
But demography is not destiny. Democrats need a more complex understanding of the ethnic rainbow if they are to succeed as a majority coalition party. Broadly supported causes like income and health security can still unite voters across ethnic and racial divides.
