Heidi Zeiger
Community advocates urge residents to complete the census on Chicago’s S. Loomis Street in May.
In July, Chicago Mayor Lori Lightfoot recruited a local celebrity to help persuade residents to fill out their census forms. Adam Hollingsworth, the “Dreadhead Cowboy” who came to national attention after riding his horse in Black Lives Matter protests, is now the “Census Cowboy,” touring neighborhoods that typically don’t respond to the decennial count.
But Lightfoot didn’t reckon with President Trump. Last week, he stunned officials around the country by moving up the census completion deadline to September 30. It is the latest in a series of alarming developments upending the national count that often misses people of color and low-income residents. Convincing people to comply with a process that many people fail to realize is in their own interests even in the middle of a pandemic has taken on new urgency.
When the coronavirus hit in March, the Census Bureau announced an August 11 deadline for individuals and families to fill out and mail survey forms. Follow-up visits by census-takers to households that had not responded would conclude on October 31. The Trump administration also shifted the date of the delivery of the official counts to Congress. The date had been moved from December 31, 2020, to April 30, 2021. But the apportionment count delivery has reverted to December, giving Trump control of the process.
The accelerated deadlines are “purposefully designed not just to claw back the result that the Supreme Court denied them,” says Jay Young, the executive director of Common Cause Illinois, referring to the decision that blocked the addition of a citizenship question on the 2020 census. Trump also signed a memo that aimed to exclude undocumented immigrants from the census count, an announcement that led to lawsuits from Los Angeles County and the American Civil Liberties Union, among others.
Illinois consistently ranks among the states with the highest percentage of residents filling out the census, but Chicago often lags behind. In 2010, Chicago’s 66 percent self-response rate was among the lowest of any major American city. As of the date of the mayor’s announcement, with the process disrupted by the COVID-19 pandemic, that number was at approximately 55 percent.
But in some of the city’s typically “hard to reach” communities, less than half of the residents have filled out the census. Census outreach in these communities—which tend to be low-income and communities of color—“really depends on the door-knocking and the face-to-face enumeration, which all got pushed back by the coronavirus,” says Diana Elliott, a research associate at the Urban Institute, a Washington think tank. In March and April, community groups would normally be on the ground to lead events at schools and libraries, or to provide residents with computers and other resources to fill out the census.
Not only does the coronavirus make grassroots outreach efforts impossible, but low-income and communities of color that have been disproportionately affected by the pandemic also stand to lose the most in the long run: These areas may shed political representation, both in the House and at the local and state level. They also risk losing federal funding since census data helps determine how the federal government distributes an estimated $1.5 trillion across more than 300 federal programs. But that money is divided among the states and localities whose residents filled out the census, not the ones that didn’t. “Congress determines the size of the pie, the census data determines who gets what slice,” says Andrew Reamer, an economics professor at George Washington University, “but it all gets eaten up.”
Along with a ramped-up digital strategy (including social media posts explaining why the census is important) and phone banks, community outreach groups have incorporated census chats into well-being checks, such as making sure that families have food and working air conditioners. Other groups have combined census outreach with COVID-19 messaging: Census workers also hand out masks and let people know that health care funding depends on an accurate count. Young told me that on the West Side of Chicago, community advocates put stickers on packages of tortillas in one neighborhood tortilleria, to remind customers to fill out the census.
So far, the response rate in Chicago is higher than in cities like Boston, Detroit, or Philadelphia.
The city of Philadelphia has been replacing its usual door-to-door approach with door hangers containing tips about filling out the form. “We have a very detailed plan that uses every day up until October 31st to ensure that every family counts,” says Stephanie Reid, the executive director of Philly Counts 2020. “Removing a month from our plan is cutting it down by 30 percent. Census operations taking place this summer and fall are designed to reach historically undercounted and low-response groups.” These groups tend to have poor internet access (the 2020 count is the first to have an online option) and low trust in government. Some people may also feel unsafe letting any stranger into their home given COVID-19 risks.
In 2010, the national response for individuals and families was approximately 74 percent. After the Census Bureau conducted follow-up visits to people (and used other strategies to count nonresponders), officials estimated they accounted for approximately 97 percent of all residents in 2010.
At the end of July, the national response rate was about 63 percent, significantly lower than roughly the same period a decade ago.
At the end of July, the national response rate was about 63 percent, significantly lower than roughly the same period a decade ago. The condensed eight-week window for follow-up suggests that the final count will also be less accurate than 2010’s. While the 2010 census was mostly accurate, it undercounted 2.1 percent of Black Americans, while overcounting whites by just under 1 percent. Even if census workers are able to pursue follow-up questioning in the fall, it is very possible that the discrepancy between these two groups may be even larger in 2020—an outcome that the Trump administration appears determined to produce.
Before the pandemic, Mayor Lightfoot set an ambitious goal of 75 percent response rate, hoping to surpass the 2010 national average. But many families did not fill out the form in April, when the census outreach is typically at its peak. “When we do events like the citywide challenge and engage a community leader like the Dreadhead Cowboy, we are able to raise people’s awareness,” says Nubia Willman, director of Chicago’s Office of New Americans. “But to see a real meaty, substantial increase, we need [better] tools and unfortunately, those have just not been given to us.”
For Lightfoot, changing the deadline is a symptom of a deliberate and familiar strategy. “This is a stunt by the White House to avoid counting everyone as required by the Constitution—especially those living in undercounted areas.” the mayor tweeted at the end of July. “We won’t stand for it.”
